AUD: Labor market report provides little justification for December cut – Commerzbank

The Australian labour market report for October, published this morning, contained some positive surprises, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes.

Economy is cooling while inflation remains high

"Job creation was more than twice what was expected, with over 40,000 new jobs being created, which contributed to a stronger-than-expected decline in the unemployment rate. This offset the unpleasant surprise from the previous month, when the rate unexpectedly rose sharply. An interest rate cut in December is now highly unlikely, particularly given that inflation figures have also recently come in higher than expected."

"This is positive news for the Australian Dollar (AUD), which appreciated slightly against the US Dollar (USD) this morning. However, it should be noted that difficult months are still likely to follow. A positive labor market report should not distract from the fact that the economy is cooling while inflation remains high. This unfavorable combination will limit the Aussie's upside potential in the coming months."