USD trades heavy ahead of November NFP release – BBH

US Dollar (USD) is trading heavy near the middle of its June-December range. USD is set for a choppy trading day as key US data hit the wire. US November nonfarm payrolls (NFP) comes today, BBH FX analysts report.

US jobs data could move US Dollar

"Consensus is looking for +50k job gains in November, which also incorporates the survey for October, following an increase of +119k jobs in September. It’s not just the number of jobs gain that matters, but also which sectors are driving them. In September, the non-cyclical health care and social assistance sector contributed to nearly half the rise in NFP, underscoring the downside risk to labor demand."

"Indeed, the decline in the hiring rate suggests labor demand is weak and points to downside risk to today’s NFP release. For reference, ADP private employment rose +15k while Revelio labs non-farm employment (private and public) fell -25k over October and November. Also, Powell warned that NFP gains since April may be overstated by about 60k. So rather than averaging +40k job gains a month, the economy has actually lost -20k jobs per month since April."

"Overall, weaker US labor demand will support Fed funds futures pricing 50bps of easing next year and undermine USD. In contrast, USD can recover some of its recent losses if there are signs that the slump in labor demand is stabilizing."